Ookla Open Data#
This notebook evaluates multiple metrics derived from Ookla Open Data (Speedtest Intelligence) as nowcasting indicator.
The underlying hypothesis is that internet speed, coverage, and adoption track economic activity. Areas with faster, more widespread, and more evenly distributed connectivity are expected to show higher, or faster-recovering, economic output.
Metrics#
The candidate metrics are listed below in the order they appear:
Speed trends: average download and upload speed, by network type
Tile coverage: extent of Syria reporting test activity
Population-weighted coverage: share of population in covered tiles
Speed tier population: population distribution across speed brackets
Any-type coverage: fixed only, mobile only, both, or neither
Urban vs. rural gap: coverage split by settlement type
Broadband index: score relative to a technology benchmark
Ookla’s raw files are organized by tile, quarter, and network type. Several metrics require a quarterly summary rolled up from these raw tiles.
Speed trends#
Definition: Test-weighted average download and upload speed (Mbps), by quarter, split by network type (fixed vs. mobile).
Construction: For each quarterly raw-tile file, each tile’s avg_d_kbps / avg_u_kbps is weighted by its tests count, summed, and
divided by total tests. This produces one figure per quarter per network type.
| type | period | total_tests | avg_down_mbps | avg_up_mbps | avg_lat_ms | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | fixed | 2019-01-01 | 33495 | 5.36 | 4.88 | 98.8 |
| 1 | fixed | 2019-04-01 | 31869 | 5.26 | 4.80 | 101.8 |
| 2 | fixed | 2019-07-01 | 107218 | 7.11 | 9.02 | 55.6 |
| 3 | fixed | 2019-10-01 | 237296 | 7.20 | 9.97 | 46.1 |
| 4 | fixed | 2020-01-01 | 26580 | 4.34 | 4.00 | 83.2 |
Tile coverage#
Definition: the number of ~600m tiles (zoom level 16) that reported any test activity in a given quarter, by network type.
Construction: Row count of the quarterly raw-tile file, grouped by network type. A tile is counted as covered if it recorded at least one test that quarter, regardless of speed or test volume.
| type | period | n_tiles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | fixed | 2019-01-01 | 2619 |
| 1 | fixed | 2019-04-01 | 2692 |
| 2 | fixed | 2019-07-01 | 8474 |
| 3 | fixed | 2019-10-01 | 11903 |
| 4 | fixed | 2020-01-01 | 2277 |
Population-weighted coverage#
Definition: The share of Syria’s population living in a tile with any test activity that year, by network type.
Construction: each populated quadkey is matched to WorldPop constrained population, using one raster per year (2019–2025), so each Ookla year is weighted by that same year’s population.
Additional data sources: WorldPop constrained population rasters (2019–2025).
Limitation: the population series is model-projected, not adjusted for displacement, which is a concern given large wartime population movement in Syria.
| type | period | pop_covered_share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | combined | 2019-01-01 | 0.5467 |
| 1 | combined | 2020-01-01 | 0.4492 |
| 2 | combined | 2021-01-01 | 0.5328 |
| 3 | combined | 2022-01-01 | 0.5908 |
| 4 | combined | 2023-01-01 | 0.5601 |
Speed tier population#
Definition: Population, by year and network type, grouped into five speed tiers: no observed activity, below minimum (<25/3 Mbps), mid (25/3–100/20 Mbps), meets the FCC broadband standard (100/20–1000/100 Mbps), and gigabit (1000/100+ Mbps).
Construction: each tile’s population is assigned to the tier matching its measured download/upload speed, then summed nationally per year.
Additional data sources: WorldPop constrained population (same source and limitations as metric 3). Tier thresholds follow fixed FCC/industry benchmarks and are not calibrated to Syria specifically.
| type | period | tier | pop_share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | combined | 2019-01-01 | Below minimum (<25/3 Mbps) | 0.5275 |
| 1 | combined | 2019-01-01 | Meets FCC broadband standard (100/20-1000/100 ... | 0.0000 |
| 2 | combined | 2019-01-01 | Mid (25/3-100/20 Mbps) | 0.0192 |
| 3 | combined | 2019-01-01 | No observed activity | 0.4533 |
| 4 | combined | 2020-01-01 | Below minimum (<25/3 Mbps) | 0.4136 |
Any-type coverage#
Definition: Each populated quadkey is classified into exactly one of four mutually exclusive categories, including fixed only, mobile only, both, or neither, so the shares sum to 100% of Syria’s population.
Construction: pop_covered_share by network type does not indicate whether a person has any connectivity, since someone without fixed access may still have mobile access; this reclassification addresses that directly.
Additional data sources: Same WorldPop constrained population base.
| period | pop_share_neither | pop_share_mobile_only | pop_share_fixed_only | pop_share_both | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2019-01-01 | 0.4533 | 0.0450 | 0.1901 | 0.3116 |
| 1 | 2020-01-01 | 0.5508 | 0.1081 | 0.0674 | 0.2737 |
| 2 | 2021-01-01 | 0.4672 | 0.0845 | 0.0983 | 0.3501 |
| 3 | 2022-01-01 | 0.4092 | 0.0838 | 0.1056 | 0.4014 |
| 4 | 2023-01-01 | 0.4399 | 0.1380 | 0.0646 | 0.3575 |
6. Urban vs. rural connectivity gap#
Definition: Population-weighted coverage share (as in metric 3), disaggregated by urban vs. rural classification, for fixed, mobile, and combined (fixed and mobile pooled).
Construction: each quadkey is classified as urban or rural using the JRC GHSL Settlement Model grid, and population coverage is recomputed within each class.
Additional data sources: JRC GHSL Settlement Model grid, applied as a single 2020 epoch across all years.
| type | period | urbanization | pop_covered_share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | combined | 2019-01-01 | rural | 0.2399 |
| 1 | combined | 2020-01-01 | rural | 0.1107 |
| 2 | combined | 2021-01-01 | rural | 0.2017 |
| 3 | combined | 2022-01-01 | rural | 0.2550 |
| 4 | combined | 2023-01-01 | rural | 0.2301 |
Broadband index#
Definition: A population-weighted national score comparing measured speed against a technology-specific benchmark, where 100 indicates the
benchmark is met. The score is uncapped above 100. The combined category is excluded, as the benchmarks are technology-specific and no single benchmark is defensible for a pooled fixed and mobile connection.
Construction: Esri/ArcGIS Living Atlas methodology, computed as score = speed / benchmark × 100 per tile (fixed benchmark 100/20 Mbps, mobile benchmark 35/3 Mbps), combined using a weakest-link rule, then population-weighted to a national annual figure.
Additional data sources: WorldPop constrained population for the weighting step.
| type | period | broadband_index_pop_weighted | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | fixed | 2019-01-01 | 3.83 |
| 1 | fixed | 2020-01-01 | 4.17 |
| 2 | fixed | 2021-01-01 | 5.13 |
| 3 | fixed | 2022-01-01 | 4.69 |
| 4 | fixed | 2023-01-01 | 5.39 |
Spatial view#
Tile-level maps of download speed for a single quarter (Q4 2025), by network type. These maps visualize the tile-level data underlying the metrics above; they do not define an additional metric.