Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Analysis#
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) is a disaggregated data collection, analysis, and crisis mapping project. ACLED collects information on the dates, actors, locations, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. The raw data is available through a license obtained by the World Bank
Calculating Conflict Index#
Conflict Index is calculated as a geometric mean of conflict events and fatalities at admin 2 level
output_notebook()
show(
get_line_plot(
acled_intensity,
"Conflict index by earthquake intensity",
"Source: ACLED",
earthquakes=True,
subtitle="",
category="category_max_feb06",
measure="conflictIndex",
)
)
Observations#
It is seen from the below image that earthquake intensity had little to do with conflict intensity in Syria i.e., the areas where there was earthquake impact do not coincide with areas of high conflict. The conflict is agnostic to earthquakes and has peristsed before the earthquake.
Observations#
The Aleppo and Idleb regions have high conflict compared to the rest of the country
The conflict has reduced in Aleppo and Idleb over time
Observations#
The conflcit index is the highest in government and allied force controlled areas
It used to be much higher in Non state armed group controlled areas but went down significantly in early 2022.