Analysis of Armed Conflict, Updated to the Present

Analysis of Armed Conflict, Updated to the Present#

In this notebook, conflict events in Syria are analyzed using the ACLED dataset. Although the Syrian conflict began over a decade ago, this notebook provides an update on conflict trends from October 2020 to the present (October 2024). For earlier analyses of conflict trends, please refer to, please refer to this report

ACLED Conflict Dataset Summary#

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) is a comprehensive global dataset that tracks incidents of political violence, protests, and other conflict-related events. ACLED captures data on various forms of conflict in countries worldwide, offering real-time monitoring and analysis.

Description of Key Variables:#

  • Event Type: Captures different categories of events, including:

    • Battles

    • Explosions/Remote violence

    • Protests

    • Riots

    • Strategic Developments

    • Violence Against Civilians

  • Location: Geographic location of events, often down to the specific city or village.

  • Date: The date on which the event occurred.

  • Actors: The parties involved in the conflict or violence, which may include:

    • State forces

    • Rebel groups

    • Political militias

    • Identity militias

    • Rioters

    • Civilians

  • Fatalities: The number of fatalities reported for the event. ACLED uses reliable estimates or the lowest reported fatality count until more accurate information becomes available.

  • Sub-Event Types: More specific event types, such as peaceful protests, armed clashes, drone strikes, abductions, and looting.

  • Tags: Additional structured information about events, such as crowd sizes during protests or other context-specific variables.

Analysis Goals and Key Deliverables#

The following analytical outputs are presented throughout the remainder of this notebook:

  • National Yearly Trends. A line plot illustrating both the number of fatalities and the number of conflict events.

  • Spatial Distribution of Conflict Events. An interactive map displaying the locations of conflict events, with the capability to track changes over time.

  • National Monthly Trends. The aim in this section is to offer a more detailed view of the temporal patterns in the number of conflict events by presenting monthly event counts.

  • Patterns in Various Conflict Categories. This section presents an overview of the occurrences across various conflict categories and their changes over the past four years. Additionally, it offers a detailed analysis of sub-categories within each major conflict type to provide a more granular understanding of specific conflict events.

Map Showing Fatalities Over Time and Space#

The interactive map presented in the next cell provides an engaging way to explore the trends and impact of conflict fatalities in Syria from October 2020 to the present. By using the time slider, you can actively investigate how the conflict has shifted over time, revealing patterns of violence and areas most affected by the fighting.

For instance, you can examine the Idlib region, where some of the highest concentrations of fatalities are depicted, and compare this to other regions like Aleppo and Jisr ash-Shugur. As you move the slider, you’ll notice how different areas experience varying levels of conflict intensity, with new hotspots emerging or diminishing over time.

Feel free to interact with the map by adjusting the time scale and zooming into specific locations. This will provide you with a clearer understanding of how the conflict has evolved, and which areas have been most severely impacted during specific periods.

Make this Notebook Trusted to load map: File -> Trust Notebook

Patterns in Various Conflict Categories#

Overview of the distribution of different conflict categories#

The two tables summarize the distribution of conflict events over the past four years. The first table (Table-1) provides a broader breakdown of conflict categories. Explosions or remote violence lead with 49% of events, followed by battles (18%) and violence against civilians (15%). Strategic developments and protests represent 9% and 6% respectively, while riots account for only less than 1%. Overall, violence related to explosions, battles, and civilian-targeted events dominate the conflict landscape, as illustrated in both the category and subcategory tables.

The second table (Table-2) presents the top 10 conflict subcategories, where shelling/artillery/missile attacks dominate with 18,070 incidents, making up 36% of the total. Armed clashes follow with 9,367 events (18%), and the cumulative percentage shows that these two subcategories alone account for over half (55%) of all conflict events. Other significant subcategories include attacks (8%) and abductions/forced disappearances (7%), with looting/property destruction being the least frequent at less than 1%.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways#

The analysis provided in this notebook can be summarized as follows.

  • Conflict events and fatalities national trends: Figure-1 presents two line plots (fatalities and conflict events) illustrating the conflict in Syria over the past 4 years.Together, these plots suggest the conflict’s peak was between 2022 and 2024, followed by a modest reduction towards end of 2024.

  • Trends in Monthly Conflict Events: - Figure-2 shows a bar chart tracking the monthly number of conflict events from 2020 to 2024. The overall trend indicates a rise in conflict frequency in the later years, especially by 2024.

  • spatial distribution of fatalities The interactive map allows for exploration of how fatalities varied across space over time.

  • Distribution of major conflict categories: Table-1: Provides a broad breakdown of the conflict categories to illustrate which ones occur most. Explosions/remote violence account for a majority of events (49%) of events, followed by battles (18%) and violence against civilians (15%).

  • Distribution of sub categorized conflict events: Table-2 Displays the top 10 conflict subcategories: Shelling/artillery/missile attacks lead with 18,070 incidents (36%), followed by armed clashes (18%). These top two subcategories make up over half of all conflict events.

  • How different conflict categories distribution changed over time: Figure-3: allows users to explore the trends of various conflict categories (battles, protests, riots, and violence against civilians) over time via individual tabs while Figure-4: Breaks down each major conflict category into specific sub-events using a stacked bar chart, illustrating the contribution of each sub-category over time.

Opportunities for Further Exploration#

The analysis in this notebook provided a brief overview of key metrics related to conflict events, including trends in the number of events, fatalities, and the distribution of conflict types over time. However, the ACLED dataset is extensive and offers the potential for deeper exploration. Additional questions that can be investigated include:

  • Which regions experienced the largest changes in conflict over the study period?

  • How do conflict events correlate with socio-economic factors (e.g., population density) in different regions?

  • What is the geographic distribution of specific actors involved in conflicts, and how have these actors’ activities shifted over time?

  • How have the fatalities per event type changed over the years, and which event types are associated with the highest fatalities?

  • Are there seasonal patterns in conflict occurrences across various regions?

  • What are the most frequent triggers or causes of conflicts in specific regions?

Contents