Analysis of Armed Conflict, Updated to the Present#
In this notebook, conflict events in Syria are analyzed using the ACLED dataset. Although the Syrian conflict began over a decade ago, this notebook provides an update on conflict trends from October 2020 to the present (October 2024). For earlier analyses of conflict trends, please refer to, please refer to this report
ACLED Conflict Dataset Summary#
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) is a comprehensive global dataset that tracks incidents of political violence, protests, and other conflict-related events. ACLED captures data on various forms of conflict in countries worldwide, offering real-time monitoring and analysis.
Description of Key Variables:#
Event Type: Captures different categories of events, including:
Battles
Explosions/Remote violence
Protests
Riots
Strategic Developments
Violence Against Civilians
Location: Geographic location of events, often down to the specific city or village.
Date: The date on which the event occurred.
Actors: The parties involved in the conflict or violence, which may include:
State forces
Rebel groups
Political militias
Identity militias
Rioters
Civilians
Fatalities: The number of fatalities reported for the event. ACLED uses reliable estimates or the lowest reported fatality count until more accurate information becomes available.
Sub-Event Types: More specific event types, such as peaceful protests, armed clashes, drone strikes, abductions, and looting.
Tags: Additional structured information about events, such as crowd sizes during protests or other context-specific variables.
Analysis Goals and Key Deliverables#
The following analytical outputs are presented throughout the remainder of this notebook:
National Yearly Trends. A line plot illustrating both the number of fatalities and the number of conflict events.
Spatial Distribution of Conflict Events. An interactive map displaying the locations of conflict events, with the capability to track changes over time.
National Monthly Trends. The aim in this section is to offer a more detailed view of the temporal patterns in the number of conflict events by presenting monthly event counts.
Patterns in Various Conflict Categories. This section presents an overview of the occurrences across various conflict categories and their changes over the past four years. Additionally, it offers a detailed analysis of sub-categories within each major conflict type to provide a more granular understanding of specific conflict events.
Yearly National Trends#
In Figure-1 below, the two line plots below illustrate different aspects of the conflict in Syria over a range of years.
The plot on tab-1 shows the number of fatalities from conflicts in Syria. The data demonstrates an initial increase in fatalities from 2021 to 2022, followed by a sustained high level through 2023 and 2024. However, there is a slight decline in 2025. This trend suggests that the conflict reached its peak in terms of fatalities around 2022-2024, with some reduction towards the end in October, 2024.
The plot on tab-2 represents the number of conflict events in Syria over a similar time period. There is a steep increase in conflict events from 2021 to 2022, followed by a plateau from 2022 to 2024, indicating that the number of conflict events remained relatively stable at a high level during those years.
Together, these plots highlight a period of intense conflict from 2022 to 2024, marked by both a high number of conflict events and fatalities, followed by a modest reduction in October 2024.
Map Showing Fatalities Over Time and Space#
The interactive map presented in the next cell provides an engaging way to explore the trends and impact of conflict fatalities in Syria from October 2020 to the present. By using the time slider, you can actively investigate how the conflict has shifted over time, revealing patterns of violence and areas most affected by the fighting.
For instance, you can examine the Idlib region, where some of the highest concentrations of fatalities are depicted, and compare this to other regions like Aleppo and Jisr ash-Shugur. As you move the slider, you’ll notice how different areas experience varying levels of conflict intensity, with new hotspots emerging or diminishing over time.
Feel free to interact with the map by adjusting the time scale and zooming into specific locations. This will provide you with a clearer understanding of how the conflict has evolved, and which areas have been most severely impacted during specific periods.