Myanmar vegetation conditions through September 2026#
Vegetation greenness recovered in September after a weaker July–August, with substantial differences across regions. July to September 2026 EVI remained below 2025, with national July–September median EVI 16.1% lower, despite September alone being 6.5% higher than September 2025. 12 of 18 reporting regions had lower July–September EVI than 2025, but 16 of 18 were above September 2025 by September alone.
Tip
Using the interactive charts: Hover over a chart to compare monthly values. Click a line to focus on it, Shift-click to add another line, and double-click to reset. In charts with several panels, selecting a year focuses that year across all panels.
National EVI#
In this analysis, we examine the early season EVI for the years 2025 and 2026, focusing on the period from July to September. We compare the median EVI values for these months to understand the changes in vegetation conditions between the two years.
| National EVI changes in early-season | |||
| Comparisons use the same calendar months in 2025 and 2026 | |||
| Period | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| July–September | 0.3633 | 0.3047 | −16.1% |
| September only | 0.4218 | 0.4492 | 6.5% |
| Source: NASA MODIS EVI, 250 m, 16-day composites. July–September is the median of all observations; September is its monthly median. | |||
Figure 1. National monthly EVI#
The figure below shows the national monthly EVI for 2026 in comparison to historical averages. September EVI was +6.5% versus 2025 and +14.6% versus the 2010–2023 September average, while July was -5.5% against its historical monthly average. The July–September observation-level median remains -16.1% compared to 2025.
Regional EVI#
Figure 2. Where early-season EVI was lower#
The following figure shows that 12 of 18 regions had lower July–September median EVI than in 2025, and the largest relative declines were Rakhine (-35.3%) and Bago (East) (-29.4%). By September alone, 16 of 18 regions were above September 2025. The rebound was geographically widespread, while the three-month summaries still show earlier weakness.
Figure 2b. September EVI change by region#
By September alone, EVI was higher than in September 2025 in 16 of 18 regions. This month-specific comparison shows the widespread rebound that the July–September summary still reflects only partly.
Figure 3. EVI change during heavy rainfall and floods#
The following figure shows three regions that are affected by heavy rainfall and floods in July-August 2026. In Rakhine, the EVI dropped sharply during the peak flood months but rebounded in September. Sagaing was above its historical average in all three months despite its lower three-month median than 2025. Ayeyarwady was below its historical average in July and August, and remained slightly below it in September (-1.5%), despite a large increase over September 2025 (+37.0%).
Rainfall#
The chart below shows national monthly mean rainfall for 2024–2026. National January–September 2026 rainfall was 9.2% below 2025. Monthly rainfall covers entire administrative areas, not crop fields.
| EVI and rainfall in flood-affected regions | ||||||
| July–September 2026 compared with the same months in 2025 | ||||||
| Region | EVI | Rainfall | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 | Change | 2025 (mm) | 2026 (mm) | Change | |
| Rakhine | 0.3983 | 0.2578 | −35.3% | 2,376 | 2,171 | −8.6% |
| Sagaing | 0.3437 | 0.2929 | −14.8% | 1,075 | 858 | −20.2% |
| Ayeyarwady | 0.2109 | 0.2187 | 3.7% | 1,662 | 2,035 | 22.5% |
| Sources: NASA MODIS EVI and CHIRPS rainfall. | ||||||
Additional context#
The charts below provide historical and regional context. Completed growing seasons refer to July 2024–February 2025 and July 2025–February 2026; other charts use the periods stated in their captions.
National Level EVI during the Growing Season (2010–2025)#
The figure below shows the median EVI during the crop growing season (July to February) from 2010 to 2025. Note that the 2025 growing season includes the Jan–Feb 2026 data (since the season runs Jul 2025–Feb 2026). The 2026 season runs Jul 2026–Feb 2027 and is excluded because it is incomplete.
State/Region monthly EVI during the growing seasons 2024 vs 2025#
The figure below compares monthly median EVI for July 2024–February 2025 and July 2025–February 2026 in each state/region. Seasons are named by their July start year and the incomplete 2026 season is excluded.
The EVI/rainfall/temperature chart immediately below the growing-season profiles uses January–December calendar years 2024–2026, with 2026 ending in September. It covers all 18 regions and is separate from the completed-season comparison.
Monthly regional context and anomalies in 2026#
STL: longer-term movement and unusual monthly conditions by region#
STL separates monthly EVI into trend, recurring seasonal component, and remainder. It is fitted separately to every region’s full continuous monthly series through September 2026, using a 12-month period and robust estimation.
Choropleth Map of EVI Change between Growing Seasons 2024 and 2025#
The map compares July 2024–February 2025 with July 2025–February 2026, using the percent change in growing-season median EVI.
Long-term EVI trends#
National Level EVI Monthly Time Series#
The following figure shows the monthly median EVI in Myanmar from 2010 through September 2026.
State/Region Monthly EVI Time Series#
The figure below shows monthly median EVI for each state/region from 2010 through September 2026.
State/Region EVI Trends: Growing Season (2010–2025)#
The figure below shows the long-term trends of median EVI during the growing season for each state/region.