The Story of Sagaing

The Story of Sagaing#

As early as April 11, 2023, the Myanmar military used “thermobaric” munition for an attack on the oppoisition building. The region of Sagaing has seen conflict consistently since early 2021 when the government led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s party was overthrown by the military. In this notebook we see some correlations between ACLED Conflict Index data and change in Night Time Lights in Sagaing.

acled_adm2_disagg = convert_to_gdf(acled)
acled_adm2_disagg = (
    myanmar_adm2.sjoin(acled_adm2_disagg)[
        ["event_date", "fatalities", "event_type", "sub_event_type"] + ["ST"]
    ]
    .groupby(
        [
            "event_type",
            "sub_event_type",
            pd.Grouper(key="event_date", freq="M", closed="left"),
        ]
        + ["ST"]
    )["fatalities"]
    .agg(["sum", "count"])
    .reset_index()
)

c:\Users\sahit\anaconda3\envs\turkey-rdna\lib\site-packages\geopandas\geodataframe.py:2061: UserWarning: CRS mismatch between the CRS of left geometries and the CRS of right geometries.
Use `to_crs()` to reproject one of the input geometries to match the CRS of the other.

Left CRS: GEOGCS["WGS 84",DATUM["WGS_1984",SPHEROID["WGS 84" ...
Right CRS: EPSG:4326

  return geopandas.sjoin(left_df=self, right_df=df, *args, **kwargs)

Events that occured in Sagaing since 2021#

  • The military torched homes in Sagaing in September 2021. News Report

  • August - October 2022 there was a cutoff of internet News Report

Hide code cell source 
plt.rcParams["font.family"] = "Georgia"

plt.show()

fig, axs = plt.subplots(1, 1, figsize=(10, 4))
ax = axs  # .flatten()

# for i, ST in enumerate(['Sagaing']):
df1 = df[df["NAME_2"] == "Sagaing"]
ax.plot(df1["date"], df1["ntl_bm_mean"], "#1F77B4", label="ntl")
ax.set_ylabel("Night Time Lights")
ax.tick_params("y", colors="#1F77B4")

ax1 = ax.twinx()
ax1.plot(df1["date"], df1["conflictIndex"], "#FF7F00", label="conflict index")
ax1.set_xlabel("x")
ax1.set_ylabel("Conflict Index")
ax1.tick_params("y", colors="#FF7F00")

ax1.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
ax.spines["left"].set_color("grey")
ax1.spines["left"].set_color("grey")
ax.spines["right"].set_color("grey")
ax1.spines["right"].set_color("grey")
ax.spines["bottom"].set_color("grey")
ax1.spines["bottom"].set_color("grey")


lines = ax1.get_lines() + ax.get_lines()
labels = [line.get_label() for line in lines]
ax.legend(lines, labels, loc="upper left")


ax.set_title("Correlation between conflict index and Night Time Lights in Sagaing")

Text(0.5, 1.0, 'Correlation between conflict index and Night Time Lights in Sagaing')
../../_images/18d5a14e82a6939a66c567b70d7e183caebda0aadb511c541799ffe22e1c1d41.png 
acled_adm2_disagg[
    (acled_adm2_disagg["ST"] == "Sagaing")
    & (acled_adm2_disagg["event_date"] == "2021-10-31")
]
event_type sub_event_type event_date ST sum count
167 Battles Armed clash 2021-10-31 Sagaing 451 59
494 Explosions/Remote violence Air/drone strike 2021-10-31 Sagaing 0 2
676 Explosions/Remote violence Grenade 2021-10-31 Sagaing 0 3
932 Explosions/Remote violence Remote explosive/landmine/IED 2021-10-31 Sagaing 288 106
1305 Explosions/Remote violence Shelling/artillery/missile attack 2021-10-31 Sagaing 0 7
1782 Protests Peaceful protest 2021-10-31 Sagaing 0 93
2130 Violence against civilians Abduction/forced disappearance 2021-10-31 Sagaing 0 2
2452 Violence against civilians Attack 2021-10-31 Sagaing 86 70 
acled_adm2_disagg[
    (acled_adm2_disagg["ST"] == "Sagaing")
    & (acled_adm2_disagg["event_date"] == "2022-06-30")
]
event_type sub_event_type event_date ST sum count
293 Battles Armed clash 2022-06-30 Sagaing 644 111
529 Explosions/Remote violence Air/drone strike 2022-06-30 Sagaing 15 8
721 Explosions/Remote violence Grenade 2022-06-30 Sagaing 0 2
1063 Explosions/Remote violence Remote explosive/landmine/IED 2022-06-30 Sagaing 172 68
1389 Explosions/Remote violence Shelling/artillery/missile attack 2022-06-30 Sagaing 21 39
1851 Protests Peaceful protest 2022-06-30 Sagaing 0 103
2191 Violence against civilians Abduction/forced disappearance 2022-06-30 Sagaing 0 8
2578 Violence against civilians Attack 2022-06-30 Sagaing 118 55
2746 Violence against civilians Sexual violence 2022-06-30 Sagaing 0 1 
acled_adm2_disagg[
    (acled_adm2_disagg["ST"] == "Sagaing")
    & (acled_adm2_disagg["event_date"] == "2022-10-31")
]
event_type sub_event_type event_date ST sum count
355 Battles Armed clash 2022-10-31 Sagaing 202 82
564 Explosions/Remote violence Air/drone strike 2022-10-31 Sagaing 8 31
742 Explosions/Remote violence Grenade 2022-10-31 Sagaing 10 5
1125 Explosions/Remote violence Remote explosive/landmine/IED 2022-10-31 Sagaing 108 45
1440 Explosions/Remote violence Shelling/artillery/missile attack 2022-10-31 Sagaing 10 26
1874 Protests Peaceful protest 2022-10-31 Sagaing 0 86
2223 Violence against civilians Abduction/forced disappearance 2022-10-31 Sagaing 0 7
2637 Violence against civilians Attack 2022-10-31 Sagaing 47 23
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