Conflict and Nighttime Lights - Updated#
This notebook analyses how Nighttime Lights changed as the conflict in the country changed. Conflict is measured using ACLED data and a conflict index is calculated as geometric mean between Number of fatalities and Number of events. This conflict index is then compred to Nighttime lights (measured as lumiinosity) wihout gas flaring. The Nighttime Lights data is retrieved from BlackMarble.
Insights#
The following questions quide the data analysis -
How is NTL different in EAO controlled areas and other regions? For this, we used the control map of Myanmar as of March 2024 released by the Special Advisory Council. The contestation and control is divided into 8 regions starting from ‘stable junta control’ to ‘complete resistance control’. We expect to see that the regions that have moved into ‘complete resistance control’ have also experienced high increase in conflict.
Is there a direct correlation between Conflict Index and Nighttime Lights? We did not find a direct correlation between the two variables at a national or township level.
How did NTL change in regions that saw high increase in conflict compared to 6 months prior? There is no direct correlation between the two variables found yet.
Nighttime Lights in EAO Controlled Areas Vs Junta Controlled Areas#
There is a huge peak in the currently EAO controlled regions back in April 2023 where there is massive peak in nighttime lights. The same peak is not visible in the junta controlled regions. There is a lot more consistent light in regions where junta forces are under regular attack (category 3).