Port Call Trends Monitor

This section examines how AIS-derived trade estimates have evolved in ports along the Red Sea given the conflict in the Middle East and the escalating attacks in the Red Sea.

Data

We process daily estimated trade (imports and exports) since 2019 from the IMF’s PortWatch platform for e following ports: Aden, Al Ahmadi, Al Aqabah, Al Mukalla, As Suways, Djibouti, Duba. Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal, El-Adabiya, Jiddah, Jiddah Oil, King Fahd Port, North Ain Sukhna Port, Rabigh, Safaga, and Yanbu. As of this date, the latest data point available is February 19th, 2024.

The location of these ports can be verified in the following interactive map within the notebook.

Since the data is daily and there multiple days with no trade, we first resample the data to weekly sums. The following charts show the estimated trade volumes by port. The vertical dotted lines mark the beginning of key periods of interest highlighted by the team.

• Middle East conflict: October 7th

• Red Sea crisis: November 17th

Weekly Trade Charts

Djibouti

Djibouti

Egypt

El-Adabiya

Safaga

North Ain Sukhna Port

As Suways

Jordan

Al Aqabah

Saudi Arabia

Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal

Rabigh

King Fahd Port

Duba

Yanbu

Jiddah

Jiddah Oil

Yemen

Al Mukalla

Al Ahmadi

Aden

Methodology

Given the numerous weeks with no trade data in the PorWatch dataset, we resample the data to the monthly frequency using the sum value.

Reference Period

We use the same reference period as in the choke points analysis: January 1st 2022 up to October 6th 2023. We calculate monthly historical averages based on this time period.

The following charts show trade volume for each port, separating imports and exports, and includes trend lines from the historical average data (blue for imports, red for exports).

Djibouti

Djibouti

Egypt

El-Adabiya

Safaga

North Ain Sukhna Port

As Suways

Jordan

Al Aqabah

Saudi Arabia

Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal

Rabigh

King Fahd Port

Duba

Yanbu

Jiddah

Jiddah Oil

Yemen

Al Mukalla

Al Ahmadi

Aden

Summary Statistics

From this monthly data, we follow a similar methodology as the last section of the choke points analysis, and calculate monthly average values for each time period of interest.

• Baseline: January 1st, 2022 – October 6th, 2023

• Middle East Conflict: October 7th, 2023 - November 16th, 2023

• Red Sea Crisis: November 17th, 2023 - February 19th, 2024

The tables below are also accessible through the Project’s Sharepoint Folder.

Monthly Averages by Time Period

Country	Port	Period	Cargo Import	Cargo Export	Tanker Import	Tanker Export	Total Import	Total Export
Djibouti	Djibouti	Reference	496,248	36,378	158,454	12,919	654,701	49,297
Djibouti	Djibouti	Middle East Conflict	506,081	49,468	120,205	4,083	626,285	53,550
Djibouti	Djibouti	Red Sea Crisis	401,003	77,485	139,392	17,145	540,395	94,630
Egypt	As Suways	Reference	4,648	5,132	783	1,127	5,430	6,259
Egypt	As Suways	Middle East Conflict	5,706	0	0	0	5,706	0
Egypt	As Suways	Red Sea Crisis	7,646	2,240	0	10,066	7,646	12,305
Egypt	El-Adabiya	Reference	56,300	108,538	69,385	3,448	125,684	111,986
Egypt	El-Adabiya	Middle East Conflict	63,403	151,135	83,762	0	147,165	151,135
Egypt	El-Adabiya	Red Sea Crisis	28,988	94,023	53,572	2,974	82,560	96,997
Egypt	North Ain Sukhna Port	Reference	417,506	71,741	308,919	72,642	726,425	144,382
Egypt	North Ain Sukhna Port	Middle East Conflict	478,392	161,099	173,284	33,503	651,676	194,602
Egypt	North Ain Sukhna Port	Red Sea Crisis	244,003	85,297	173,403	18,870	417,407	104,167
Egypt	Safaga	Reference	73,386	75,320	93	0	73,480	75,320
Egypt	Safaga	Middle East Conflict	87,906	84,162	0	0	87,906	84,162
Egypt	Safaga	Red Sea Crisis	108,730	45,784	0	0	108,730	45,784
Jordan	Al Aqabah	Reference	505,767	392,247	120,238	34,849	626,004	427,096
Jordan	Al Aqabah	Middle East Conflict	323,566	190,369	94,285	33,673	417,850	224,042
Jordan	Al Aqabah	Red Sea Crisis	211,418	183,203	33,706	12,891	245,124	196,094
Saudi Arabia	Duba	Reference	11,470	12,741	0	0	11,470	12,741
Saudi Arabia	Duba	Middle East Conflict	9,502	0	0	0	9,502	0
Saudi Arabia	Duba	Red Sea Crisis	17,484	9,306	0	0	17,484	9,306
Saudi Arabia	Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal	Reference	0	0	66,926	6,994	66,926	6,994
Saudi Arabia	Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal	Middle East Conflict	0	0	24,267	0	24,267	0
Saudi Arabia	Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal	Red Sea Crisis	0	0	37,549	3,833	37,549	3,833
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah	Reference	1,116,323	433,499	304,485	17,406	1,420,808	450,905
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah	Middle East Conflict	1,241,235	496,755	309,465	37,136	1,550,700	533,890
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah	Red Sea Crisis	672,842	280,059	317,287	21,873	990,128	301,932
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah Oil	Reference	0	0	336,104	4,674	336,104	4,674
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah Oil	Middle East Conflict	0	0	428,958	0	428,958	0
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah Oil	Red Sea Crisis	0	0	213,399	29,017	213,399	29,017
Saudi Arabia	King Fahd Port	Reference	72,768	134,102	486,407	1,929,692	559,175	2,063,794
Saudi Arabia	King Fahd Port	Middle East Conflict	44,789	104,329	249,356	1,865,661	294,144	1,969,990
Saudi Arabia	King Fahd Port	Red Sea Crisis	71,688	99,701	230,213	1,328,270	301,901	1,427,971
Saudi Arabia	Rabigh	Reference	515,971	384,649	219,304	305,019	735,276	689,669
Saudi Arabia	Rabigh	Middle East Conflict	443,722	364,038	165,869	353,272	609,591	717,310
Saudi Arabia	Rabigh	Red Sea Crisis	163,975	154,983	171,208	178,847	335,183	333,830
Saudi Arabia	Yanbu	Reference	127,704	76,367	9,543	346	137,247	76,713
Saudi Arabia	Yanbu	Middle East Conflict	89,140	20,167	8,558	0	97,699	20,167
Saudi Arabia	Yanbu	Red Sea Crisis	53,960	34,242	9,699	0	63,660	34,242
Yemen	Aden	Reference	216,989	9,666	39,819	5,311	256,807	14,976
Yemen	Aden	Middle East Conflict	163,033	3,116	28,444	1,143	191,477	4,259
Yemen	Aden	Red Sea Crisis	126,452	2,986	21,000	0	147,452	2,986
Yemen	Al Ahmadi	Reference	135,216	16,457	48,057	3,093	183,273	19,549
Yemen	Al Ahmadi	Middle East Conflict	231,323	12,617	61,260	18,770	292,584	31,387
Yemen	Al Ahmadi	Red Sea Crisis	204,161	4,418	26,095	2,635	230,256	7,052
Yemen	Al Mukalla	Reference	18,541	3,350	7,391	1,223	25,932	4,574
Yemen	Al Mukalla	Middle East Conflict	17,786	531	19,324	0	37,110	531
Yemen	Al Mukalla	Red Sea Crisis	6,605	0	9,136	0	15,741	0

Monthly Averages by Time Period, % Change from Baseline

The following table shows the difference in monthly average values (% change from baseline period).

Country	Port	Period	Cargo Import	Cargo Export	Tanker Import	Tanker Export	Total Import	Total Export
Yemen	Aden	Middle East Conflict	-24.87%	-67.76%	-28.57%	-78.48%	-25.44%	-71.56%
Yemen	Aden	Red Sea Crisis	-41.72%	-69.11%	-47.26%	-100.00%	-42.58%	-80.06%
Yemen	Al Ahmadi	Middle East Conflict	71.08%	-23.33%	27.47%	506.90%	59.64%	60.55%
Yemen	Al Ahmadi	Red Sea Crisis	50.99%	-73.16%	-45.70%	-14.81%	25.64%	-63.93%
Yemen	Al Mukalla	Middle East Conflict	-4.07%	-84.15%	161.44%	-100.00%	43.10%	-88.39%
Yemen	Al Mukalla	Red Sea Crisis	-64.38%	-100.00%	23.61%	-100.00%	-39.30%	-100.00%
Jordan	Al Aqabah	Middle East Conflict	-36.02%	-51.47%	-21.58%	-3.37%	-33.25%	-47.54%
Jordan	Al Aqabah	Red Sea Crisis	-58.20%	-53.29%	-71.97%	-63.01%	-60.84%	-54.09%
Egypt	As Suways	Middle East Conflict	22.77%	-100.00%	-100.00%	-100.00%	5.08%	-100.00%
Egypt	As Suways	Red Sea Crisis	64.50%	-56.36%	-100.00%	793.46%	40.80%	96.61%
Egypt	El-Adabiya	Middle East Conflict	12.62%	39.25%	20.72%	-100.00%	17.09%	34.96%
Egypt	El-Adabiya	Red Sea Crisis	-48.51%	-13.37%	-22.79%	-13.74%	-34.31%	-13.38%
Egypt	North Ain Sukhna Port	Middle East Conflict	14.58%	124.56%	-43.91%	-53.88%	-10.29%	34.78%
Egypt	North Ain Sukhna Port	Red Sea Crisis	-41.56%	18.90%	-43.87%	-74.02%	-42.54%	-27.85%
Egypt	Safaga	Middle East Conflict	19.79%	11.74%	-100.00%	nan%	19.63%	11.74%
Egypt	Safaga	Red Sea Crisis	48.16%	-39.21%	-100.00%	nan%	47.97%	-39.21%
Djibouti	Djibouti	Middle East Conflict	1.98%	35.98%	-24.14%	-68.40%	-4.34%	8.63%
Djibouti	Djibouti	Red Sea Crisis	-19.19%	113.00%	-12.03%	32.71%	-17.46%	91.96%
Saudi Arabia	Duba	Middle East Conflict	-17.15%	-100.00%	nan%	nan%	-17.15%	-100.00%
Saudi Arabia	Duba	Red Sea Crisis	52.44%	-26.96%	nan%	nan%	52.44%	-26.96%
Saudi Arabia	Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal	Middle East Conflict	nan%	nan%	-63.74%	-100.00%	-63.74%	-100.00%
Saudi Arabia	Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal	Red Sea Crisis	nan%	nan%	-43.89%	-45.20%	-43.89%	-45.20%
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah	Middle East Conflict	11.19%	14.59%	1.64%	113.36%	9.14%	18.40%
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah	Red Sea Crisis	-39.73%	-35.40%	4.20%	25.67%	-30.31%	-33.04%
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah Oil	Middle East Conflict	nan%	nan%	27.63%	-100.00%	27.63%	-100.00%
Saudi Arabia	Jiddah Oil	Red Sea Crisis	nan%	nan%	-36.51%	520.83%	-36.51%	520.83%
Saudi Arabia	King Fahd Port	Middle East Conflict	-38.45%	-22.20%	-48.74%	-3.32%	-47.40%	-4.55%
Saudi Arabia	King Fahd Port	Red Sea Crisis	-1.48%	-25.65%	-52.67%	-31.17%	-46.01%	-30.81%
Saudi Arabia	Rabigh	Middle East Conflict	-14.00%	-5.36%	-24.37%	15.82%	-17.09%	4.01%
Saudi Arabia	Rabigh	Red Sea Crisis	-68.22%	-59.71%	-21.93%	-41.37%	-54.41%	-51.60%
Saudi Arabia	Yanbu	Middle East Conflict	-30.20%	-73.59%	-10.32%	-100.00%	-28.82%	-73.71%
Saudi Arabia	Yanbu	Red Sea Crisis	-57.75%	-55.16%	1.64%	-100.00%	-53.62%	-55.36%

Summary Charts

The following charts sort all ports by the greatest differences (absolute and relative) observed in the tables above. We use the monthly averages calculated for the Red Sea Crisis time period and the baseline reference.

Absolute Difference from Baseline

Fig. 5 Difference in Import Volume during Red Sea Crisis

Fig. 6 Difference in Export Volume during Red Sea Crisis

Percentage Change from Baseline

Fig. 7 Percent Change in Import Volume during Red Sea Crisis

Fig. 8 Percent Change in Export Volume during Red Sea Crisis

Implementation

• Notebook to create charts and tables