Shipping and Conflict#
This notebook explores the relationship between trade and conflict in the Red Sea region. The focus is on the Beb El-Mandeb strait and the conflict in Yemen.
In summary, there was very minor correlation found between fatalities reported by ACLED and shipping movement. The greatest correlation (coeff: 0.1) was between weekly trends in fatalities within 150km of the ports and shipping movement.
There is a -0.94 correlation between number of vessels in Bal El-Mandab Strait and the cumulative Attacks in the Red Sea Region. Every additional attack in the Red Sea results in a significant reduction of shipping vessels.