Conflict Impact on Economic Activity#
Conflict Impact on Agriculture#
Armed conflict has significant impacts on agricultural productivity, and vegetation indices has been utilized to assess these impacts. These conflicts can lead to reduced agricultural output, food insecurity, and economic instability. Studies employing vegetation indices have documented various impact of conflicts across different regions.
In Syria, research from Jaafar et al. (2015) highlights the severe impact of the war on irrigated agricultural production, with EVI data indicating a significant drop in summer crop yields between 15% and 30% from 2000 to 2013. This decline is particularly pronounced in conflict hotspots such as Idleb, Homs, Hama, Daraa, and Aleppo. The study also notes that the conflict has led to a shift in agricultural practices, with farmers abandoning their lands and crops due to safety concerns, exacerbating the decline in production.
On another study, Deininger et al. (2023) examined the impact of conflict on Ukrainian agriculture using Sentinel-2 imagery and machine learning to classify crop cover, employing NDVI as a proxy for expected yield. The study revealed substantial conflict-induced reductions crop yields, with an estimated 4.84 million tons of winter wheat output lost due to the war. When accounting for both area and yield reductions, the study estimates a war-induced loss of winter wheat output of up to 17%, assuming the 2022 winter wheat crop was fully harvested.
In Ethiopia, Hishe et al. (2024) utilized Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MNDVI), Optimized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (OSAVI), and Moisture Adjusted Vegetation Index (MAVI) to assess spatio-temporal changes in vegetation cover. Before the armed conflict broke out in the region, vegetation cover in the Tigray was increased by 179 km2 (2%) from 2000-2020 due to conservation practices. However, during the conflict period from 2020 to 2022, vegetation cover decreased by 5.3% and accompanied by decrease in vegetation density. This rapid decline largely reversed the gains made over the preceding 20 years.
These papers that study the relationship between armed conflict and agriculture show correlations with significant changes in crop yields and agricultural practices.
Conflict Impact on NO2#
NO2 is a critical air pollutant primarily emitted from combustion processes, serving as a proxy for fossil fuel-based energy usage and co-emitted pollutants and greenhouse gases. Its relatively short atmospheric lifetime (less than one day) makes it an effective indicator for monitoring real-time changes in human and economic activities, including those influenced by conflict.
Conflict-induced changes across regions#
Guo et al. (2024) utilized sate utilized satellite-based NO2 observations and nightlight intensity data to assess the impact of conflict in Sudan. Following the outbreak of conflict, both NO2 concentrations and nightlight intensity declined in affected areas, providing clear evidence of reduced economic activity and population displacement. In the primary conflict zones, NO2 concentrations showed immediate and substantial declines after April 15, 2023, with Khartoum experienced the most severe reduction at 34%, while Khartoum North saw an 18% decrease during the first week of the war. These reductions were attributed to reduced population movement, factory shutdowns, and overall economic disruption in the conflict-affected areas. In contrast, regions that remained relatively stable showed opposite trends. Areas such as Ed Damazin, Kadugli, and Kassala exhibited positive upward trends in NO2 concentrations during April 2023, likely reflecting increased economic activity and population influx as displaced populations sought refuge in these safer regions.
Duncan et al. (2016) examined the impact of conflict on NO2 levels in Libya, Syria, and Iraq using satellite-based observations. The study found significant reductions in NO2 concentrations in conflict-affected areas, indicating a decrease in fossil fuel consumption and economic activity. In Libya, the onset of civil unrest in 2011 led to a 60% decrease in GDP and a corresponding drop in NO2 levels, which did not fully recover to prewar levels. In Syria, the ongoing civil war resulted in substantial decreases in NO2 concentrations across major cities like Damascus and Aleppo, reflecting the war’s impact on the economy and infrastructure. In Iraq, despite the initial conflict period, NO2 levels increased over time, likely due to ongoing oil extraction activities despite the unrest.
Malytska et al. (2024) conducted a study on the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine on atmospheric NO2 concentrations using Sentinel-5P TROPOMI data. The study found that the war has led to significant changes in NO2 levels, with a notable decrease in industrial areas due to reduced economic activity, comparable to the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. However, the conflict also resulted in localized increases in NO2 concentrations, particularly in areas directly affected by hostilities and fires. The study highlighted that while there was a temporal decline in NO2, the overall air quality in Ukraine deteriorated due to increased frequency and intensity of fires, especially in conflict-related areas.
In summary, the relationship between armed conflict and atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations is complex, with impacts varying significantly based on the nature, intensity, and duration of the conflict. While conflicts typically lead to reductions in NO2 levels due to decreased industrial activity, population displacement, and transportation disruptions, they can also result in localized increases from fires, military activities, and refugee concentration in safer areas.
References#
K. Deininger, D. A. Ali, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, G. Lemoine, and H. Yailimova, “Quantifying war!induced crop losses in Ukraine in near real time to strengthen local and global food security,” Food Policy, vol. 115, p. 102418, Feb. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102418
H. H. Jaafar, R. Zurayk, C. King, F. Ahmad, and R. Al!Outa, “Impact of the Syrian conflict on irrigated agriculture in the Orontes Basin,” International Journal of Water Resources Development, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 436–449, Jul. 2015, doi: 10.1080/07900627.2015.1023892.
S. Hishe et al., “The impacts of armed conflict on vegetation cover degradation in Tigray, northern Ethiopia,” International Soil and Water Conservation Research, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 635–649, Sep. 2024, doi: 10.1016/ j.iswcr.2023.11.003
Z. Guo, H. Abushama, K. Siddig, O. K. Kirui, K. Abay, and L. You, “Monitoring Indicators of Economic Activities in Sudan Amidst Ongoing Conflict Using Satellite Data,” Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 35, no. 8, pp. 992–1008, Nov. 2024, doi: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2290474.
B. N. Duncan et al., “A space‐based, high‐resolution view of notable changes in urban NO_{\textrm{x}} pollution around the world (2005–2014)”, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 121, no. 2, pp. 976–996, Jan. 2016, doi: 10.1002/2015JD024121.
L. Malytska, A. Ladstätter!Weißenmayer, E. Galytska, and J. P. Burrows, “Assessment of environmental consequences of hostilities: Tropospheric NO2 vertical column amounts in the atmosphere over Ukraine in 2019–2022,” Atmospheric Environment, vol. 318, p. 120281, Feb. 2024, doi: 10.1016/ j.atmosenv.2023.120281.