Conflict Impact Analysis Global#
Methodological summary#
Geography: 160 countries across all WB regions. 153 countries have conflict-related data. 159 countries have population data.
Countries excluded (no / insufficient data): Micronesia, Fed. Sts.; Hong Kong SAR, China; Macao SAR, China; Turkmenistan; Kosovo; Grenada; St. Kitts and Nevis; Turks and Caicos Islands.
58 countries have high fatality conflicts.
Timeline: 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31.
Source: ACLED conflict events; population overlays from WorldPop 2020 (UN‑adjusted).
Conflict definition
Only events with at least one fatality are counted for events and fatalities.
Peaceful protests are excluded. Protest categories are included only when the fatality threshold is met: Protest with intervention; Excessive force against protesters.
Other ACLED event types retained (subject to the fatality filter): Battles; Explosions / Remote violence; Violence against civilians; Riots; Strategic developments.
Population data
WorldPop 2020 UN‑adjusted population raster. Totals are sums of WorldPop 2020 (not official census figures), so country totals may differ from WB official figures.
Spatial aggregation and grid size
Gridding scheme: Bing quadkey tiles clipped to country boundaries (zoom level 12 ≈ 60–80 km²).
Exposed population definition People living in the same grid tile with a cumulative ≥10 conflict fatalities during the study period.
A tile is considered impacted if cumulative conflict events in that tile had at least ten fatalities.
Exposed population = sum of population in impacted tiles within a country.
Percent exposed = 100 × (exposed population) / (total population from WorldPop 2020) computed per region, per country.
Notes and caveats
Grid area varies with latitude; figures are approximate.
Excluding Peaceful protest and zero-fatality events reduces counts relative to broader unrest measures.
ACLED event geocoding precision varies; interpret results with this uncertainty in mind.
Population is assumed static at projected 2020 values.
Conflict Events and Fatalities#
| wb_region | nrEvents | nrFatalities |
|---|---|---|
| East Asia & Pacific | 5,122 | 21,225 |
| Europe & Central Asia | 12,924 | 78,394 |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 16,894 | 25,669 |
| Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan | 12,905 | 50,882 |
| South Asia | 1,406 | 3,137 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 14,725 | 66,949 |
People living in the same 60–80 km² grid tile (medium sized city) as a conflict with at least one fatality#
220.84 million people living in the same area (60–80 km²) as a conflict event in 2024 globally.
This is 3.3% of the total population.
What type of conflicts are in these ‘impacted’ grids with more than 10 fatalities in 2024?#
