Conflict Impact Analysis in Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan (2024)

Conflict Impact Analysis in Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan (2024)#

  • Geography: MENA + AP countries (MENAAP). Afghanistan, Pakistan, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Yemen, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Palestine, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Tunisia, Bahrain.

  • Timeline: 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31.

  • Source: ACLED conflict events; population overlays from WorldPop 2020 UN-adjusted.

Conflict Definition

  • Only events with atleast one fatality are included in event and fatality counts.

  • Excluded Peaceful protests. Included Protests when fatality threshold is met: “Protest with intervention” and “Excessive force against protesters”.

  • Other ACLED event types retained (subject to the fatality filter), such as: Battles; Explosions/Remote violence; Violence against civilians; Riots; Strategic developments.

Population Data

  • Population data: WorldPop 2020 UN-adjusted population raster. Population totals are obtained by summing WorldPop 2020 populations (not official census totals), so country totals may differ from WB official figures.

Spatial aggregation and grid size

  • Gridding scheme: Bing quadkey tiles clipped to country boundaries Quadkey Zoom Level 12 ~60–80 km²

Exposed population definition “People living in the same grid tile with a cumulative ≥10 conflict fatalities during the study period”

  • A tile is considered impacted if cumulative conflict events in that tile had at least ten fatalities during the study period.

  • Exposed population is the sum of population living in impacted tiles within that country.

  • Percent exposed = 100 × (exposed population) / (total population from WorldPop 2020) computed per country.

Notes and caveats

  • Grid area varies with latitude; figures are approximate.

  • Excluding “Peaceful protest” and zero-fatality events reduces counts relative to broader unrest measures.

  • ACLED event geocoding precision varies; results should be interpreted with this uncertainty in mind.

  • Population of countries is assumed to be static at projected 2020 values.

Conflict Events and Fatalities#

Total conflict events in the region (with atleast one fatality and non-peaceful protests) from 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31: 12,905
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People living in the same grid tile (z=12) with ≥10 cumulative conflict fatalities during the study period#

People living in the same 60–80 sqkm grid tile (z=12) with ≥10 cumulative conflict fatalities#

36.02778 million people living in the same area (60-80sqkm) as a conflict event in 2024 in MENAAP. 
This is 5.04% of the total population.
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