Air Pollution in Algeria

Contents

Air Pollution in Algeria#

Exploratory Data Analysis#

NO2-GDP Models with Nighttime Lights (NTL)#

Hydrocarbon Model#

We focus first on the hydrocarbon sector and run regression using mean NO₂ and sum of nighttime lights near flaring locations. We include both without and with quarter dummies to control for seasonality.

No quarter dummies: log(GDP) ~ log(ntl_gf_5km_sum) + log(NO₂_flaring_mean)
With quarter dummies: log(GDP) ~ log(ntl_gf_5km_sum) + log(NO₂_flaring_mean) + quarter


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Without Quarter Dummies	With Quarter Dummies
	(1)	(2)

Intercept	18.204^***	16.615^***
	(1.963)	(2.353)
Log NTL in flaring locations	-0.306^***	-0.339^***
	(0.076)	(0.066)
Log NO₂ in flaring locations	0.016	-0.156
	(0.109)	(0.176)

Observations	54	54
R²	0.269	0.502
Adjusted R²	0.240	0.450
Residual Std. Error	0.109 (df=51)	0.093 (df=48)
F Statistic	9.383^*** (df=2; 51)	9.677^*** (df=5; 48)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01

Sector Models#

For each of the 5 target sectors, we estimate two models:

National Models: log(GDP) ~ log(NTL) + log(NO₂_national) + quarter
Flaring models: log(GDP) ~ log(NTL) + log(NO₂_flaring_mean) + quarter

NTL + National NO₂#


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Hydrocarbons	Non-HC manufacturing	Construction	Transport and communications	Low VA services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)

Intercept	20.104^***	0.836	-2.357	6.143^***	6.584^***	27.958^***	-8.613
	(4.631)	(4.239)	(3.653)	(1.672)	(2.412)	(5.963)	(8.799)
Log NTL (national)	-0.315^***	0.975^***	1.027^***	0.552^***	0.522^***	-0.850^***	1.671^***
	(0.090)	(0.082)	(0.071)	(0.032)	(0.047)	(0.116)	(0.171)
Log NO₂ (national)	0.148	0.314	-0.035	0.075	0.081	0.140	0.454
	(0.314)	(0.288)	(0.248)	(0.113)	(0.164)	(0.404)	(0.597)

Observations	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
R²	0.395	0.847	0.870	0.945	0.810	0.631	0.862
Adjusted R²	0.332	0.831	0.857	0.939	0.790	0.592	0.848
Residual Std. Error	0.103 (df=48)	0.094 (df=48)	0.081 (df=48)	0.037 (df=48)	0.053 (df=48)	0.132 (df=48)	0.195 (df=48)
F Statistic	6.258^*** (df=5; 48)	53.067^*** (df=5; 48)	64.336^*** (df=5; 48)	165.341^*** (df=5; 48)	40.978^*** (df=5; 48)	16.387^*** (df=5; 48)	60.032^*** (df=5; 48)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01

NTL + Flaring NO₂#


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Hydrocarbons	Non-HC manufacturing	Construction	Transport and communications	Low VA services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)

Intercept	17.388^***	-2.512	-2.589	5.593^***	6.069^***	24.417^***	-10.540^*
	(2.966)	(2.739)	(2.334)	(1.071)	(1.543)	(3.810)	(5.615)
Log NTL (national)	-0.285^***	1.014^***	1.028^***	0.559^***	0.529^***	-0.812^***	1.700^***
	(0.079)	(0.073)	(0.062)	(0.028)	(0.041)	(0.101)	(0.149)
Log NO₂ in flaring locations	-0.045	0.085	-0.054	0.039	0.048	-0.114	0.339
	(0.204)	(0.188)	(0.161)	(0.074)	(0.106)	(0.262)	(0.386)

Observations	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
R²	0.392	0.844	0.870	0.945	0.810	0.631	0.863
Adjusted R²	0.329	0.827	0.857	0.939	0.790	0.593	0.848
Residual Std. Error	0.103 (df=48)	0.095 (df=48)	0.081 (df=48)	0.037 (df=48)	0.053 (df=48)	0.132 (df=48)	0.194 (df=48)
F Statistic	6.201^*** (df=5; 48)	51.806^*** (df=5; 48)	64.482^*** (df=5; 48)	164.761^*** (df=5; 48)	40.933^*** (df=5; 48)	16.424^*** (df=5; 48)	60.307^*** (df=5; 48)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01

Bivariate NO₂-GDP Models#

National Level#


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	12.007^***	16.713^***	16.573^***	18.987^***	10.991^***	14.309^***	9.919^***	13.719^***	19.899^***	7.101^***	27.523^***
	(1.741)	(2.834)	(2.598)	(1.597)	(1.644)	(1.562)	(1.966)	(3.054)	(7.379)	(2.631)	(6.333)
Log NO₂ (national)	-0.117	0.275	0.444^**	0.420^***	-0.226	0.072	-0.319^*	0.165	0.542	-0.544^**	1.353^**
	(0.148)	(0.240)	(0.220)	(0.135)	(0.139)	(0.133)	(0.167)	(0.259)	(0.626)	(0.223)	(0.537)

Observations	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
R²	0.012	0.025	0.072	0.156	0.048	0.006	0.066	0.008	0.014	0.103	0.109
Adjusted R²	-0.007	0.006	0.055	0.139	0.030	-0.013	0.048	-0.011	-0.005	0.085	0.092
Residual Std. Error	0.131 (df=52)	0.213 (df=52)	0.195 (df=52)	0.120 (df=52)	0.124 (df=52)	0.117 (df=52)	0.148 (df=52)	0.230 (df=52)	0.555 (df=52)	0.198 (df=52)	0.476 (df=52)
F Statistic	0.629 (df=1; 52)	1.308 (df=1; 52)	4.060^** (df=1; 52)	9.585^*** (df=1; 52)	2.625 (df=1; 52)	0.296 (df=1; 52)	3.658^* (df=1; 52)	0.405 (df=1; 52)	0.749 (df=1; 52)	5.941^** (df=1; 52)	6.342^** (df=1; 52)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	27.020^***	37.236^***	35.963^***	28.936^***	7.946^**	26.707^***	3.263	38.426^***	24.658^***	-4.833	55.845^***
	(2.566)	(5.564)	(5.164)	(2.950)	(3.411)	(3.003)	(4.055)	(5.520)	(2.201)	(5.713)	(10.011)
Log NO₂ (national)	1.141^***	2.001^***	2.074^***	1.250^***	-0.477	1.115^***	-0.873^**	2.247^***	0.876^***	-1.546^***	3.768^***
	(0.216)	(0.468)	(0.435)	(0.248)	(0.287)	(0.253)	(0.341)	(0.465)	(0.185)	(0.481)	(0.843)

Observations	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
R²	0.602	0.302	0.320	0.465	0.239	0.318	0.262	0.398	0.984	0.215	0.587
Adjusted R²	0.569	0.245	0.264	0.422	0.177	0.262	0.202	0.349	0.982	0.150	0.553
Residual Std. Error	0.086 (df=49)	0.186 (df=49)	0.172 (df=49)	0.098 (df=49)	0.114 (df=49)	0.100 (df=49)	0.135 (df=49)	0.184 (df=49)	0.073 (df=49)	0.191 (df=49)	0.334 (df=49)
F Statistic	18.505^*** (df=4; 49)	5.303^*** (df=4; 49)	5.760^*** (df=4; 49)	10.656^*** (df=4; 49)	3.852^*** (df=4; 49)	5.710^*** (df=4; 49)	4.349^*** (df=4; 49)	8.107^*** (df=4; 49)	740.139^*** (df=4; 49)	3.346^** (df=4; 49)	17.381^*** (df=4; 49)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	10.629^***	20.399^***	16.130^***	11.911^***	13.865^***	16.715^***	13.331^***	21.871^***	-21.007^***	10.257^***	32.354^***
	(1.702)	(2.605)	(2.565)	(1.699)	(1.648)	(1.464)	(1.964)	(2.671)	(5.729)	(2.646)	(5.953)
Log NO₂ (national, lag 1 quarter)	-0.234	0.587^**	0.406^*	-0.181	0.018	0.276^**	-0.029	0.856^***	-2.927^***	-0.275	1.761^***
	(0.144)	(0.221)	(0.218)	(0.144)	(0.140)	(0.124)	(0.167)	(0.227)	(0.486)	(0.224)	(0.505)

Observations	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
R²	0.049	0.121	0.064	0.030	0.000	0.088	0.001	0.219	0.416	0.029	0.193
Adjusted R²	0.031	0.104	0.046	0.011	-0.019	0.070	-0.019	0.203	0.404	0.010	0.177
Residual Std. Error	0.127 (df=51)	0.194 (df=51)	0.191 (df=51)	0.127 (df=51)	0.123 (df=51)	0.109 (df=51)	0.146 (df=51)	0.199 (df=51)	0.427 (df=51)	0.197 (df=51)	0.443 (df=51)
F Statistic	2.636 (df=1; 51)	7.053^** (df=1; 51)	3.481^* (df=1; 51)	1.578 (df=1; 51)	0.017 (df=1; 51)	4.936^** (df=1; 51)	0.030 (df=1; 51)	14.266^*** (df=1; 51)	36.282^*** (df=1; 51)	1.506 (df=1; 51)	12.166^*** (df=1; 51)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	18.870^***	19.680^***	15.048^***	15.531^***	12.479^***	17.037^***	11.672^***	18.371^***	27.169^***	12.437^***	1.930
	(1.536)	(2.529)	(2.532)	(1.692)	(1.612)	(1.395)	(1.895)	(2.784)	(7.306)	(2.621)	(6.533)
Log NO₂ (national, lag 2 quarters)	0.464^***	0.525^**	0.314	0.126	-0.099	0.303^**	-0.169	0.558^**	1.159^*	-0.090	-0.820
	(0.130)	(0.214)	(0.215)	(0.143)	(0.137)	(0.118)	(0.161)	(0.236)	(0.620)	(0.222)	(0.554)

Observations	52	52	52	52	52	52	52	52	52	52	52
R²	0.203	0.107	0.041	0.015	0.010	0.116	0.022	0.100	0.065	0.003	0.042
Adjusted R²	0.187	0.089	0.022	-0.005	-0.009	0.098	0.002	0.082	0.047	-0.017	0.023
Residual Std. Error	0.114 (df=50)	0.188 (df=50)	0.189 (df=50)	0.126 (df=50)	0.120 (df=50)	0.104 (df=50)	0.141 (df=50)	0.207 (df=50)	0.544 (df=50)	0.195 (df=50)	0.487 (df=50)
F Statistic	12.703^*** (df=1; 50)	5.996^** (df=1; 50)	2.132 (df=1; 50)	0.767 (df=1; 50)	0.524 (df=1; 50)	6.546^** (df=1; 50)	1.108 (df=1; 50)	5.585^** (df=1; 50)	3.498^* (df=1; 50)	0.164 (df=1; 50)	2.190 (df=1; 50)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	21.336^***	14.870^***	15.862^***	20.697^***	14.751^***	15.399^***	13.942^***	12.296^***	35.935^***	12.940^***	16.425^**
	(1.137)	(2.581)	(2.455)	(1.377)	(1.639)	(1.401)	(1.931)	(2.885)	(6.981)	(2.626)	(6.566)
Log NO₂ (national, lag 3 quarters)	0.673^***	0.116	0.382^*	0.564^***	0.094	0.163	0.024	0.042	1.903^***	-0.047	0.408
	(0.096)	(0.219)	(0.208)	(0.117)	(0.139)	(0.119)	(0.164)	(0.245)	(0.592)	(0.223)	(0.557)

Observations	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51
R²	0.498	0.006	0.064	0.322	0.009	0.037	0.000	0.001	0.174	0.001	0.011
Adjusted R²	0.488	-0.015	0.045	0.308	-0.011	0.018	-0.020	-0.020	0.157	-0.019	-0.009
Residual Std. Error	0.084 (df=49)	0.191 (df=49)	0.182 (df=49)	0.102 (df=49)	0.121 (df=49)	0.104 (df=49)	0.143 (df=49)	0.214 (df=49)	0.517 (df=49)	0.194 (df=49)	0.486 (df=49)
F Statistic	48.706^*** (df=1; 49)	0.283 (df=1; 49)	3.366^* (df=1; 49)	23.267^*** (df=1; 49)	0.455 (df=1; 49)	1.892 (df=1; 49)	0.021 (df=1; 49)	0.030 (df=1; 49)	10.323^*** (df=1; 49)	0.044 (df=1; 49)	0.537 (df=1; 49)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01

Change Models#


	Dependent variable: gdp_yoy

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	0.033^***	0.058^***	0.056^***	0.034^***	-0.002	0.038^***	-0.016	0.067^***	0.024^***	-0.027	0.117^***
	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.015)	(0.008)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.002)	(0.019)	(0.035)
NO₂ YoY Growth	0.111	-0.036	-0.064	0.001	-0.422^*	-0.063	-0.324	-0.146	0.004	-0.424	-0.382
	(0.093)	(0.122)	(0.074)	(0.058)	(0.224)	(0.125)	(0.232)	(0.230)	(0.032)	(0.297)	(0.535)

Observations	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
R²	0.029	0.002	0.016	0.000	0.069	0.005	0.039	0.008	0.000	0.041	0.010
Adjusted R²	0.009	-0.019	-0.005	-0.021	0.049	-0.015	0.019	-0.012	-0.020	0.021	-0.010
Residual Std. Error	0.042 (df=48)	0.055 (df=48)	0.033 (df=48)	0.026 (df=48)	0.102 (df=48)	0.057 (df=48)	0.105 (df=48)	0.105 (df=48)	0.015 (df=48)	0.135 (df=48)	0.243 (df=48)
F Statistic	1.444 (df=1; 48)	0.086 (df=1; 48)	0.758 (df=1; 48)	0.000 (df=1; 48)	3.534^* (df=1; 48)	0.256 (df=1; 48)	1.961 (df=1; 48)	0.402 (df=1; 48)	0.016 (df=1; 48)	2.038 (df=1; 48)	0.509 (df=1; 48)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01


	Dependent variable: gdp_qoq

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	0.023^*	0.019	0.014^***	0.009	0.010	0.013^**	0.011	0.029^*	0.645^**	0.003	0.197^**
	(0.013)	(0.014)	(0.004)	(0.012)	(0.020)	(0.006)	(0.022)	(0.015)	(0.244)	(0.016)	(0.092)
NO₂ QoQ Growth	-0.415^***	-0.134	0.034	0.196^**	-0.216^*	-0.183^***	-0.233^*	-0.352^***	0.491	-0.336^***	1.147^**
	(0.082)	(0.085)	(0.025)	(0.077)	(0.123)	(0.036)	(0.135)	(0.094)	(1.504)	(0.101)	(0.568)

Observations	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
R²	0.336	0.046	0.035	0.113	0.057	0.340	0.056	0.217	0.002	0.177	0.074
Adjusted R²	0.323	0.028	0.016	0.096	0.038	0.327	0.037	0.202	-0.017	0.160	0.056
Residual Std. Error	0.096 (df=51)	0.100 (df=51)	0.029 (df=51)	0.090 (df=51)	0.144 (df=51)	0.042 (df=51)	0.158 (df=51)	0.110 (df=51)	1.764 (df=51)	0.119 (df=51)	0.667 (df=51)
F Statistic	25.785^*** (df=1; 51)	2.474 (df=1; 51)	1.849 (df=1; 51)	6.502^** (df=1; 51)	3.078^* (df=1; 51)	26.263^*** (df=1; 51)	3.003^* (df=1; 51)	14.165^*** (df=1; 51)	0.107 (df=1; 51)	10.935^*** (df=1; 51)	4.074^** (df=1; 51)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01

Industrial Wilayas Level#

This section repeats the core models using NO₂ averaged only over the four industrial wilayas: Alger, Oran, Ouargla, and Skikda.


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	17.031^***	21.931^***	18.736^***	18.079^***	11.077^***	18.643^***	8.996^***	22.500^***	20.812^**	8.483^***	17.837^**
	(1.903)	(3.005)	(2.854)	(1.872)	(1.860)	(1.608)	(2.192)	(3.109)	(8.293)	(3.043)	(7.490)
Log NO₂ (industrial wilayas)	0.313^*	0.728^***	0.636^**	0.347^**	-0.222	0.446^***	-0.403^**	0.922^***	0.628	-0.433	0.539
	(0.164)	(0.258)	(0.245)	(0.161)	(0.160)	(0.138)	(0.189)	(0.267)	(0.713)	(0.262)	(0.644)

Observations	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
R²	0.066	0.132	0.114	0.082	0.036	0.167	0.081	0.186	0.015	0.050	0.013
Adjusted R²	0.048	0.116	0.097	0.064	0.017	0.151	0.063	0.171	-0.004	0.032	-0.006
Residual Std. Error	0.127 (df=52)	0.201 (df=52)	0.191 (df=52)	0.125 (df=52)	0.124 (df=52)	0.108 (df=52)	0.147 (df=52)	0.208 (df=52)	0.554 (df=52)	0.203 (df=52)	0.501 (df=52)
F Statistic	3.663^* (df=1; 52)	7.927^*** (df=1; 52)	6.721^** (df=1; 52)	4.650^** (df=1; 52)	1.920 (df=1; 52)	10.399^*** (df=1; 52)	4.564^** (df=1; 52)	11.902^*** (df=1; 52)	0.775 (df=1; 52)	2.733 (df=1; 52)	0.699 (df=1; 52)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01


	Dependent variable: gdp_log

	Agriculture and fishing	Construction	Electricity and gas	High VA services	Hydrocarbons	Low VA services	Mining and refining	Non-HC manufacturing	Non-commercial services	Oil and gas extraction and related services	Refining and coking
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)

Intercept	18.135^***	21.564^***	19.781^***	19.451^***	12.025^***	18.936^***	9.831^***	22.472^***	17.497^***	8.379^**	26.051^***
	(1.548)	(3.217)	(3.047)	(1.745)	(1.824)	(1.689)	(2.198)	(3.167)	(1.314)	(3.214)	(5.852)
Log NO₂ (industrial wilayas)	0.403^***	0.698^**	0.730^***	0.463^***	-0.137	0.473^***	-0.328^*	0.926^***	0.280^**	-0.444	1.291^**
	(0.133)	(0.277)	(0.263)	(0.150)	(0.157)	(0.146)	(0.190)	(0.273)	(0.113)	(0.277)	(0.504)

Observations	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
R²	0.473	0.152	0.139	0.320	0.209	0.215	0.212	0.280	0.979	0.096	0.486
Adjusted R²	0.430	0.083	0.069	0.264	0.144	0.151	0.147	0.221	0.977	0.023	0.445
Residual Std. Error	0.098 (df=49)	0.205 (df=49)	0.194 (df=49)	0.111 (df=49)	0.116 (df=49)	0.107 (df=49)	0.140 (df=49)	0.201 (df=49)	0.084 (df=49)	0.204 (df=49)	0.372 (df=49)
F Statistic	10.987^*** (df=4; 49)	2.194^* (df=4; 49)	1.981 (df=4; 49)	5.764^*** (df=4; 49)	3.229^** (df=4; 49)	3.364^** (df=4; 49)	3.290^** (df=4; 49)	4.767^*** (df=4; 49)	568.817^*** (df=4; 49)	1.305 (df=4; 49)	11.605^*** (df=4; 49)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01