Social Contract in MENAAP
According to the Michael, et, al., 2021 report, there are three aggregate indices to measure the social contract
The Citizen-State Bargain also referred to as ‘Civil Capacity’
Civil Capacity: Citizen Organization, Citizen Mobilization, Citizen Cooperation
State Capacity: State Authority, State Resources, State Efficiency
Social Outcomes that form the contents of the social contract
Thickness: Public Goods, Social Safety Nets
Inclusiveness: Equal Opportunity, Absence of Corruption
Responsiveness: Human Right, Freedom of Expression
Resilience and Dynamism
Social Contract Indicators Definitions
Mass Mobilization compared with data from ACLED
Change in Civil Capacity and Mass Mobilization
Methodology: Calculating Percentage Change with Minimum Data Requirements
Our analysis calculates percentage changes in social contract indicators using a robust methodology that ensures statistical reliability:
Data Quality Threshold
Minimum 10 data points: Only countries with ≥10 non-null observations per indicator are included
This threshold ensures we have sufficient temporal coverage to calculate meaningful trends
Eliminates countries with sparse or insufficient data that could produce misleading results
Calculation Method
Data Preparation: Filter out null/missing values for each country-indicator pair
Quality Check: Verify country has minimum required observations (default: 10 points)
Temporal Sorting: Arrange data chronologically to identify earliest and latest years
Change Calculation:
Percentage Change = ((Latest Value - Earliest Value) / |Earliest Value|) × 100
Transparency: Include start and end years for each calculation to enable verification
Social Contract in MENAAP#
According to the Michael, et, al., 2021 report, there are three aggregate indices to measure the social contract
The Citizen-State Bargain also referred to as ‘Civil Capacity’
Civil Capacity: Citizen Organization, Citizen Mobilization, Citizen Cooperation
State Capacity: State Authority, State Resources, State Efficiency
Social Outcomes that form the contents of the social contract
Thickness: Public Goods, Social Safety Nets
Inclusiveness: Equal Opportunity, Absence of Corruption
Responsiveness: Human Right, Freedom of Expression
Resilience and Dynamism
Alignment: Civil Compliance, Popular Support
Social Contract Indicators Definitions#
Indicator Code
Indicator Name
Definition
Civil_Capacity
Civil Capacity
The level of voice and collective action capabilities that average citizens have to hold the State accountable and influence public policy.
Absence_Capture
Lack of elite capture
The level to which bargaining power within the social contract is evenly distributed and not overly concentrated in a narrow group of elites. The extent to which abuse of power is prosecuted.
Absence_Exclusion
Lack of exclusion
The extent to which there is no marginalization and exclusion of groups based on economic or socio-demographic dimensions where they would be excluded from participating in the social contract.
Social_Capital
Social capital
The extent to which citizens are knowledgeable about major policy debates and engage in policy discussions among themselves. The amount of interpersonal trust and social cohesion enabling for collective action among groups.
Quality_Interface
Quality of the Citizen-State Interface
The quality and openness of the channels of communications and exchange between citizens and the State.
Intermediary_Channels
Institutional channels
Presence of formal access of information institutions (such as open budgeting and open contracting), free and fair elections, and state-led citizen engagement initiatives to consult with citizens.
Institutional_Channels
Institutional channels
Presence of formal access of information institutions (such as open budgeting and open contracting), free and fair elections, and state-led citizen engagement initiatives to consult with citizens.
Public_Channels
Public channels
The levels of freedom of expression and of the press that allow for opinions to be shared widely and openly and for public opinion to circulate freely. And freedom of people to assemble into groups to demonstrate.
Resilience
Resilience
The extent to which there is evidence of a misalignment between citizens’ expectations and their perceptions of the outcomes from the social contract, and that there is a way forward for the resolution of these misalignments through peaceful dialogue.
Mass Mobilization
Social Unrest
The level of presence of mass mobilizations such as protests and demonstrations.
Trust
Trust in the national government
The self-reported level of trust from citizens in their national government.
Civic_Space
Perceptions on the quality of the civic space
To what extent are citizens reporting positive perceptions on their freedom of expression, the fairness of elections, and their capacity to voice their opinion to public officials.
Mass Mobilization compared with data from ACLED#
Change in Civil Capacity and Mass Mobilization#
Methodology: Calculating Percentage Change with Minimum Data Requirements#
Our analysis calculates percentage changes in social contract indicators using a robust methodology that ensures statistical reliability:
Data Quality Threshold#
Minimum 10 data points: Only countries with ≥10 non-null observations per indicator are included
This threshold ensures we have sufficient temporal coverage to calculate meaningful trends
Eliminates countries with sparse or insufficient data that could produce misleading results
Calculation Method#
Data Preparation: Filter out null/missing values for each country-indicator pair
Quality Check: Verify country has minimum required observations (default: 10 points)
Temporal Sorting: Arrange data chronologically to identify earliest and latest years
Change Calculation:
Transparency: Include start and end years for each calculation to enable verification
Analysis includes countries with at least 10 years of data available
Civil Capacity data unavailable for: Djibouti, Gaza, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, West Bank