# Air Pollution and Economic Activity ## Research Objective This study posits that Air Pollution data can be used to supplement other variables such as Nightlights to show changes in economic activity, especially in countries where frequent, subnational economic indicators are unavailable. The research objective is to assess how effectively NOx, SOx, CH4, and PM2.5 data serve as proxies for transportation, hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon manufacturing, and industrial activity. ## Background and Historical Context Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is a byproduct of combustion and its concentration in the atmosphere has been used as a measure of economic activity {cite}`Ezran2023`. The short atmospheric life of NO2 (less than a day) means that densities are closely correlated to emissions {cite}`Seinfeld2019`. Global concentration of NO2 is available through satellite remote sensing datasets, making it a valuable resource for many data-poor countries. We examined NOx as a potential proxy for transportation activity and industrial production/manufacturing. In Baghdad, Iraq, NOx levels correlated with the Traffic Congestion Intensity Index (TCI). In Ethiopia, NOx linked to industrial production via export values in Addis Ababa—the closest available proxy. Data gaps prevented combined transportation and manufacturing analysis in a single country context. These findings revealed a positive NOx-TCI relationship in Baghdad and NOx-export value association in Addis Ababa. They also highlighted the need for testing in additional contexts and accounting for differential contribution from economic sectors. To account for testing in different contexts, the team would like to expand this research using the case studies of Pakistan, Algeria and Myanmar. Both Algeria and Myanmar have GDP estimates from Transportation, Industry, Construction and other sources. To account for sector decomposition of economic contributions to pollution, the team would like to add CH4 and PM2.5 to the existing models. This will allow the team to have PM2.5 estimates that are extremely useful in identifying changes in transportation. This will also allow teams to separate hydrocarbon sectors from the others. ## Research questions How can we decipher PM2.5 levels, independent of NO2 and SO2, using existing remote sensing, and satellite imagery? Which sectors of the economy against which GDP is typically measured, can Air Pollution be the best proxy? Is there a relationship between GDP of the specific sectors identified and the environmental pollution variables? **Case Studies** - Pakistan: The Pakistan Transportation Economists would like to understand how traffic or changes in transportation contribute to PM2.5. The team’s model for PM2.5 estimates, along with NO2 will be used by the Pakistan team in their transportation analysis. - Algeria: The students will have access to hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon GDP from Algeria. They will also have a list of sectors against which Algerian GDP is measured for RQ #2. This data can be used to understand the relationship between GDP sectors and Air pollution variables. - Myanmar: The students will be able to access subnational, sectoral, quarterly GDP estimates for Myanmar (still in review). The sectors here can also be used for RQ #2. **Existing Work** [Imperial College London x World Bank Data Lab](https://github.com/datapartnership/air-pollution-mobility-research-project): Includes Literature Review, and final report ### Project Team **George Washington University** - Tyler Wallet - Aakash Hariharan (Team Lead) - Maxi Leiding - Aishitha Pachipala - Relsy Puthal - Munir Salihu - Siddharth Saravanan **World Bank** - Sahiti Sarva - Claudia Calderon Machicado - Maria Sol Tadeo - Farhan Reynaldo Hutabarat ## References ```{bibliography} ``` ## License This project is licensed under the MIT License together with the [World Bank IGO Rider](https://github.com/worldbank/.github/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md). The Rider is purely procedural: it reserves all privileges and immunities enjoyed by the World Bank, without adding restrictions to the MIT permissions. Please review both files before using, distributing or contributing.